Carbon monoxide emissions from passenger vehicles: predictive mapping with an application to Hamilton, Canada

Integrated urban models are designed to simulate land-use and transportation interactions and to allow predicts of traffic volume and vehicle emissions at the link level of the urban transport network. As such, these models can address the weakness of existing systems. The Integrated Model of Urban LAnd-use and Transportation for Environmental analysis is an operational urban model calibrated for the Census Metropolitan Area of Hamilton. This paper extends this model to include air pollution estimation and mapping of vehicle air pollutants, employing a dispersion model and spatial data analysis. The approach provides an integrated framework for impact assessment of land-use and transport policies on traffic flows, emissions, and pollutant concentration, enabling the evaluation of population exposure to traffic related pollution. The study illustrates how vehicle-generated carbon monoxide concentration can be estimated and mapped using the proposed approach under a base-case scenario for the 2006. Several development and transportation scenaria can be developed and 'hot-spots' of traffic-originated air pollution can be identified and visualized within a Geographic Information System framework.