Energy and environmental implications of NOx emission reduction from the transport sector of Beijing: a least-cost planning analysis

This paper determines cost effective passenger transport technology and energy options at selected targets for nitrogen oxides emission reduction from the transport sector in Beijing, China during 2005-2020 using a long-term least cost vehicular mix model. It also examines the implications of the nitrogen oxides emission reduction targets (NERTs) for greenhouse gas and other local pollutant emissions. The study is limited to the passenger transportation in the city and does not consider freight transportation options. A key finding of this study is that the liquefied petroleum gas buses would replace diesel buses in Beijing at NERT of 10% while the shares of other transport options would remain unaffected. At higher NERT of 20-50%, hybrid cars and electric trolley buses would be cost effective. It is also found that total cost would increase only marginally (by less than 0.1%) up to the emission reduction target of 10% whereas it would increase by as high as 31.7% when the target is increased to 50%. Total energy requirement would not change much at lower values of NERT (e.g., 10%). However, it would decrease as the emission reduction target is set at 20% or higher.