کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1054904 | 946862 | 2008 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh](/preview/png/1054904.png)
This paper describes the impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) rise and sea-level rise (SLR) on cyclonic storm surge flooding in western Bangladesh. A calibrated numerical hydrodynamic model was used to simulate surge wave propagation through the rivers and overland flooding. The model was calibrated with base condition (present climate), and then eight flooding scenarios of plausible future conditions were assessed by considering increased surge heights. Flooded area, flooding depth and surge intrusion length were computed by superimposing the predicted maximum water level information on a digital elevation model (DEM). This analysis showed that for a storm surge under 2 °C SST rise and 0.3 m SLR, flood risk area would be 15.3% greater than the present risk area and depth of flooding would increase by as much as 22.7% within 20 km from the coastline. Within the risk area, the study identified 5690 km2 land (22% of exposed coast) as a high-risk zone (HRZ) where flooding of depth 1 m or more might occur, and people should move to nearby cyclone shelters during extreme cyclonic events. Predicted area of HRZ is 1.26 times the currently demarcated HRZ. It was estimated that 320 additional shelters are required to accommodate people in the newly identified HRZ. This information would be of value to policy and decision makers for future shelter planning and designing shelter heights.
Journal: Global Environmental Change - Volume 18, Issue 3, August 2008, Pages 490–500