Integrated estimates of global terrestrial carbon sequestration

Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. A comprehensive analysis incorporating ecologic, geographic and economic data was used to develop terrestrial carbon sequestration estimates for agricultural soil carbon, reforestation and pasture management. These estimates were applied in the MiniCAM integrated assessment model to evaluate mitigation strategies within policy and technology scenarios aimed at achieving atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization by 2100. Terrestrial sequestration reaches a peak rate of 0.5–0.7 GtC yr−1 in mid-century with contributions from agricultural soils (0.21 GtC yr−1), reforestation (0.31 GtC yr−1) and pasture (0.15 GtC yr−1). Sequestration rates vary over time and with different technology and policy scenarios. The combined contribution of terrestrial sequestration over the next century ranges from 23 to 41 GtC.