Uncertainty analysis of primary water pollutant control in China's pulp and paper industry

• Uncertainty analysis is utilized in water pollution control of a certain industry.
• We provide a general methodology for industrial water pollution control.
• Feasible results for China's total water pollution control are worked out.
• Further suggestions on sensitive techniques and technologies are provided.

The total emission control target of water pollutants (e.g., COD and NH4–N) for a certain industrial sector can be predicted and analysed using the popular technology-based bottom-up modelling. However, this methodology has obvious uncertainty regarding the attainment of mitigation targets. The primary uncertainty comes from macro-production, pollutant reduction roadmap, and technical parameters. This research takes the paper and pulp industry in China as an example, and builds 5 mitigation scenarios via different combinations of raw material structure, scale structure, procedure mitigation technology, and end-of-pipe treatment technology. Using the methodology of uncertainty analysis via Monte Carlo, random sampling was conducted over a hundred thousand times. According to key parameters, sensitive parameters that impact total emission control targets such as industrial output, technique structure, cleaner production technology, and end-of-pipe treatment technology are discussed in this article. It appears that scenario uncertainty has a larger influence on COD emission than NH4–N, hence it is recommended that a looser total emission control target for COD is necessary to increase its feasibility and availability while maintaining the status quo of NH4–N. Consequently, from uncertainty analysis, this research recognizes the sensitive products, techniques, and technologies affecting industrial water pollution.