A spatial-statistical approach for modeling the effect of non-point source pollution on different water quality parameters in the Velhas river watershed – Brazil

In this article, a methodology for evaluating the effect of land use/land cover on the quality of nearby stream water in a semiarid environment is described and tested on a large watershed in Southeastern Brazil. The approach aims at identifying the width of the riparian area having the strongest effect on different water quality parameters. The land use/land cover data were generated from remotely sensed data while water quality point data were supplied by a government agency. Testing was conducted for both the rainy and dry seasons in an effort to understand the direct effect of surface runoff. The approach combines cartographic modelling using a geographical information system (GIS) and statistics to establish the strength of the relationship between water quality, land use and the distance from the stream. Results suggest a strong relationship between land use/land cover and turbidity, nitrogen and fecal coliforms. They also suggest that each of these parameters has a unique behavior when distance from the stream is considered. Finally, although it was expected that the models would apply better during the wet season, some parameters had the opposite behavior and displayed a better fit during the dry season.