Future carbon balance of China's forests under climate change and increasing CO2

The possible response of the carbon (C) balance of China's forests to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change was investigated through a series of simulations using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model, which explicitly represents the effects of climate, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on future C sequestration by forests. Two climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2 and -B2) were used to drive the model. Simulations showed that China's forests were a C sink in the 1990s, averaging 189 Tg C yr−1 (about 13% of the global total). This sink peaks around 2020 and then gradually declines to 33.5 Tg C yr−1 during 2091–2100 without climate and CO2 changes. Effects of pure climate change of CGCM2-A2 and -B2 without allowing CO2 effects on C assimilation in plants might reduce the average net primary productivity (NPP) of China's forests by 29% and 18% during 2091–2100, respectively. Total soil C stocks might decrease by 16% and 11% during this period. China's forests might broadly act as C sources during 2091–2100, with values of about 50 g C m−2 yr−1 under the moderate warming of CGCM2-B2 and 50–200 g C m−2 yr−1 under the warmer scenario of CGCM2-A2. An increase in CO2 might broadly increase future C sequestration of China's forests. However, this CO2 fertilization effect might decline with time. The CO2 fertilization effects on NPP by the end of this century are 349.6 and 241.7 Tg C yr−1 under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. These effects increase by 199.1 and 126.6 Tg C yr−1 in the first 50 years, and thereafter, by 150.5 and 115.1 Tg C yr−1 in the second 50 years under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively.Under a CO2 increase without climate change, the majority of China's forests would be C sinks during 2091–2100, ranging from 0 to 100 g C m−2 yr−1. The positive effect of CO2 fertilization on NPP and net ecosystem productivity would be exceeded by the negative effect of climate change after 2050. Under the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario and with direct CO2 effects, China's forests may be a small C source of 7.6 Tg C yr−1 during 2091–2100. Most forests act as C sources of 0–40 g C m−2 yr−1. Under the CGCM2-B2 climate scenario and with direct CO2 effects, China's forests might be a small C sink of 10.5 Tg C yr−1 during 2091–2100, with C sequestration of most forests ranging from 0 to 40 g C m−2 yr−1. Stand age structure plays a more dominant role in determining future C sequestration than CO2 and climate change. The prediction of future C sequestration of China's forests is very sensitive to the Q10 value used to estimate maintenance respiration and to soil water availability and less sensitive to N deposition scenario.The results are not yet comprehensive, as no forest disturbance data were available or predicted after 2001. However, the results indicate a range of possible responses of the C balance of China's forests to various scenarios of increase in CO2 and climate change. These results could be useful for assessing measures to mitigate climate change through reforestation.