A constrained cellular automata model to simulate the potential effects of high-speed train stations on land-use dynamics in trans-border regions

• We combine land use and the High Speed Train station in a constrained cellular automata model.
• We use the circular neighbourhood of White and Engelen to express spatial interactions and the non linearity of the system.
• We simulate the impact of the High Speed Train on land use dynamics in different scenarios.
• We use environmental suitability maps as a substitute for the zoning status.

This research addresses a modelling approach that combines land use and a high-speed train (TGV1) network in a constrained cellular automata (CA2) model. CA are used to model the dynamics and growth of the trans-border region of France, Monaco and Italy (Côte d’Azur-Riviera). The main objective of the study is to understand the impact of TGV stations on land use changes within the border region. This contribution provides specific and detailed map representations of future land development. In addition, based on the TGV feedback, the research highlights factors that are not included in the model that also influenced regional development. A substantial part of the work is therefore devoted to discussing and analysing these factors and the manner in which they provide an interpretative framework for the modelling exercises. The results are realistic and indicate that CA models can be used to assess this important topic even though they have not previously been used for this purpose.