The impact of emigrants’ homeland relations on air travel demand in a security volatile market: a case study on Lebanon

The impacts of international migration have been heavily studied. Much of this analysis has been carried out within the framework of the economic and social effects of migrants, to both host and home countries. This paper looks at the impact of Lebanese emigrants’ homeland relations on air travel demand in a security volatile market. The emphasis is on two particular features: first, the principal impact of liberal air transport policies in facilitating emigrants’ home visits; and second, the sensitivity of passenger-GDP relation. The paper pulls together data and other cases on the Lebanese emigration evolution and explains its impacts on the economy as well as on the air transport market in Lebanon. The study findings suggest that in Lebanon and due to the presence of interrelated factors, the variation and the strength of the relationship between traffic levels and GDP are neither consistent nor static. The considerably huge expatriate communities, which are three times greater than the Lebanese residents, are said to defy the negative impact of security instability on the air passenger growth through frequently visiting expats. Moreover, the emigrants’ economic support to Lebanon through remittance inflows is observed to dampen the sensitivity of the relationship between passenger and GDP in times of war and peace. The results should be looked at as indicative of trends to encourage policy makers to consider how best to make use of these human and financial flows.

► Expatriate visits are defying the impact of security instability on passenger growth.
► Emigrants’ economic support is dampening the GDP/passengers’ sensitivity.
► Regulatory changes are increasing the numbers of expatriate visitors.
► Gulf LCCs are increasing the frequency of expatriates’ visits.