An agent based model concept for assessing modal share in inter-regional freight transport markets

This paper introduces an Agent based modelling approach to model inter-urban freight transport between two or more trading regions. The use of the model is to ascertain the modal share of competing transport modes (road and intermodal) while taking complex transport service supply–demand dynamics into account. It is structured by modules describing company generation, supplier choice, modal competition and International road freight transport market dynamics. The behaviour of individual actors is simulated using normative agent behaviour and market knowledge. Using the micro-simulation approach, shippers and carriers (primarily road hauliers and a maritime based intermodal operator) interact through simulated contracts resulting in the generation of tours. The service performance of the tours is fed back into the model for decision making during contract deliberations. Preliminary application of model to Mediterranean case study show that market share gains of around 25–30% are obtained with policy interventions of financial subsidies to intermodal services and more frequent shipping services in the intermodal transport respectively.

► Micro-simulation approach to estimate modal share of competing transport modes.
► Introduces agent based framework to model inter-urban freight market dynamics.
► Complex freight transport demand–supply dynamics replicated in the simulation.