The geography of advance transit-oriented development in metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, 2000–2007

Phoenix adopted overlay zoning (an additional, targeted layer of regulations) in some light-rail transit (LRT) station areas at the site-selection stage to reduce planning-related uncertainty. This prompts consideration of advance transit-oriented development (TOD)—development that takes place before LRT system operation. In this paper we break down almost $1 billion worth of advance TOD in the Phoenix area by type of TOD, type of station area, and use of overlay zoning. Factor analysis and cluster analysis are applied to GIS-based parcel-level data to identify five distinct station-area types. We then use ANOVA to verify statistically significant relationships between station-area type and: the value of advance TOD, the percentage of parcels with overlay zoning, and the percentage of advance TOD with overlay zoning. The five station-area types, ordered from highest to lowest advance TOD per station, are employment centers; Middle-Income Mixed-Use areas; transportation (park-and-ride) nodes; high population/rental areas; and urban poverty areas. Overlay zoning was used most in areas of urban poverty and least in station-area types with the most single-family housing. Advance TOD coincided strongly with overlay zoning in areas of urban poverty and least in employment and amenity centers.