Barrier effects of international borders on fixed link traffic generation: the case of Øresundsbron

Traffic predictions for large road and rail projects are often inaccurate. International borders create political, cultural and economic barriers which reduce the demand for international transport, partly offset by some opportunities which increase transport demand. An expert opinion approach is used to help identify and evaluate the effect of these barriers on transport demand. The research explores why initial traffic levels predicted for the Øresund fixed link between Copenhagen in Denmark and Malmö in Sweden were not achieved. It uses the Danish Great Belt fixed link as a control case in assessing the scale of these barriers to interaction. Subsequent trans-Øresund traffic growth is attributed mainly to a tax agreement between the Danish and Swedish governments to assist cross-border commuters, to discounted tolls and to complementary labour and housing market opportunities.