Travel-to-school mode choice modelling and patterns of school choice in urban areas

Because of declining enrollment and school closures in some German regions students have to choose a certain school location from a reduced set of schools. For the analysis of adverse effects of school closures on transport mode choice the patterns of school choice are specified first. It seems that proximity and the profile offered (languages as a core for example) are adequate factors. Second, the travel-to-school mode choice are modelled using a multinomial logit approach, since students might switch from low cost transport modes (cycling for instance) to modes with remarkably higher costs (public transport for instance). Here, the most influencing factors are distance, car availability and weather. Furthermore, these findings are incorporated into a case study to quantify the effects of a modal-shift (switch from one transport mode to another). For this analysis a comprehensive survey was undertaken and a method of data disaggregation and geocoding is presented.