The politico-economic link between public transport and road pricing: An ex-ante study of the Stockholm road-pricing trial

A full-scale road pricing trial will be performed in Stockholm for 7 months in 2006. The road tolls are bundled with major improvements of public transport. The trial will be followed by a local referendum. We conduct numerical simulations with a model of modal choice to estimate the welfare effects of road tolls on commuters crossing the toll zone. We find that in the absence of revenue recycling, few commuters gain from the road-toll reform. However, the fraction of gainers rises considerably when public transport is improved as planned in Stockholm.