Consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles: A discrete choice analysis

• German car buyers are reluctant to buy alternative fuel vehicles.
• Hybrid vehicles are far less likely to be rejected than battery only vehicles.
• Car buyers are willing to pay considerable amounts for improved vehicle features depending on vehicle type.
• Multiple policies are needed if alternative fuel vehicles uptake is to increase.

This paper analyzes the potential demand for privately used alternative fuel vehicles using German stated preference discrete choice data. By applying a mixed logit model, we find that the most sensitive group for the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles embraces younger, well-educated, and environmentally aware car buyers, who have the possibility to plug-in their car at home, and undertake numerous urban trips. Moreover, many households are willing to pay considerable amounts for greater fuel economy and emission reduction, improved driving range and charging infrastructure, as well as for enjoying vehicle tax exemptions and free parking or bus lane access. The scenario results suggest that conventional vehicles will maintain their dominance in the market. Finally, an increase in the battery electric vehicles’ range to a level comparable with all other vehicles has the same impact as a multiple measures policy intervention package.