The market potential for plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles in Flanders: A choice-based conjoint analysis

This paper considers the market potential for battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Flanders, Belgium. Making use of a large-scale survey conducted in 2011 and applying a choice-based conjoint experiment, it is predicted that by 2020, battery electric vehicles could have a market share of about 5% of new vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could have a share of around 7%. By 2030, these figures could increase to 15% and 29%. The speed of up-take of electric vehicles, however, is sensitive to purchase costs.

► We forecast the market potential for plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles in Flanders, Belgium.
► Part-worth utilities are found for nine vehicle attributes.
► We forecast the penetration rate of electric vehicles in 2012, 2020 and 2030.
► We conclude that until 2020, the market share of electric vehicles will still be limited.