Can high speed rail offset its embedded emissions?

This paper analyzes the climate implications of investments in high speed railway lines given uncertainty in future transport demand, technology and power production. To capture the uncertainty of estimated parameters, distributions for the annual traffic emissions reduction required to compensate for the embedded emissions from the construction of infrastructure are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. In order to balance the annualized emissions from the railway construction, traffic volumes of more than 10 million annual one-way trips are usually required. Most of the traffic diverted from other modes must come from aviation and the project cannot involve the extensive use of tunnels.

► The paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze climate benefit from new high-speed railway investment.
► It is found that the levels of benefit depends on CO2 from power production and degree of diversion from aviation.
► Further, to balance embedded construction emissions at least 10 million annual trips needed.