Understanding the transition to integrated flood risk management in the Netherlands

• The multi-pattern approach is a new method to analyse the dynamics of transitions and is applied, validated and enriched.
• The MPA explained the contribution of Room for the River to a transition in flood risk management in the Netherlands.
• Transition conditions and patterns explained the outcomes of RftR and vice versa: outcomes are a lever for policy makers.
• MPA is a versatile method to analyse the contributions of single elements in a transition, despite or thanks to ambiguity.

The multi-pattern approach (MPA) is a new method that has been applied to understand the transition to integrated flood risk management (IFRM) in the Netherlands. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the outcomes of the 2.3 billion Euro flood safety programme Room for the River (RftR). 2 years of research, 55 interviews, a survey of 155 respondents and elaborate document analysis, provided in-depth evidence of how the transition occurred in practice. Experiments were scaled-up, IFRM was consolidated in national policies, and the implementation of RftR further adapted the functioning of the societal system. Lessons are drawn that enrich the MPA framework and that can help its further development and application. The MPA provides scientists with a method to analyse transition dynamics as a chain of patterns that occur under certain conditions. Policy makers can shape and monitor the outcomes that are to be generated to support a transition.