Modelling transitions: An appraisal of experiences and suggestions for research

Formal modelling is potentially a useful method to help understand the many mechanisms underlying transitions and their complex interactions. This article reviews existing models of transitions. It examines the mechanisms they cover, and to what extent the models contribute to understanding core characteristics of transitions, notably multi-domain interactions, inertia to change resulting from path-dependency, and the processes that induce, and contribute to self-reinforcement of, change. It is further assessed how well the models capture real world mechanisms and how this is motivated. It is concluded that models addressing the full extent of transitions suffer from a weak micro-foundation and empirical validation, which is largely due to the scope of transitions and the fragmented theoretical basis of transition research. It is proposed that transitions be broken down into particular problems and components, and that where possible associated areas of interest be defined and addressed in corresponding models.