Sustainable prosperity and societal transitions: Long-term modeling for anticipatory management

The coupled nature of human and earth system dynamics has become increasingly apparent as humanity's environmental footprint has increased. Yet, the methods and processes used to understand and guide those dynamics remain deficient in their treatment of that coupling. Lack of bi-directional coupling of human system dynamics with the dynamics of the larger environment within which humanity operates stymies the ability of researchers and policymakers to anticipate and limit the unintended consequences of technological change and help guide associated societal transitions. This paper lays out elements of a research agenda to ameliorate those deficiencies.