Estimating and valuing the carbon release in scenarios of land-use and climate changes in a Brazilian coastal area

Deforestation is a significant source of man-made carbon in the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect. Although carbon releases are associated to the ecosystem functions of climate regulation and are essential ecological processes that sustain life, their incremental economic impact is difficult to estimate. Using the InVEST model, this work quantifies and assesses the value of the carbon balance generated by predictive land-use change (LUC) scenarios for the Northern Coast of São Paulo State, Brazil. In this case, carbon losses are explained by the suppression of natural vegetation and human intervention associated to global warming. We analyzed three scenarios: i) the more conservative “legal framework”; ii) the “status quo”, which represents the current development level; and iii) the “new ventures”, encompassing all new infrastructure projects in the region. The carbon losses in the “legal framework” and “status quo” scenarios are similar to those of past periods: around 3.7 million MgC in twenty years, pointing to net current values of US$ 47 million. However, carbon losses exceeded 7 million MgC when considering factors linked to the “new ventures” scenario, such as infrastructure logistics, oil-gas exploration and pressure on natural environments. In this case, monetary losses could amount to US$ 90 million in 20 years. Besides carbon release, results also highlight the large amount of carbon still stored in protected areas that is threatened by the regional economics dynamics and requires special attention from the public sector, management bodies and regulators.