Modelling and Observing the Effects of Long Distance bus Market Liberalization in Germany

Since January 2013 the long-distance passenger market is open to bus operators. This paper is about the efforts of the German railway company in market research and model building to predict the effect of bus market liberalisation in advance. Methods, forecast and the real development of the bus market will be shown. The major focus is the design of the situational stated preference conjoint and the parameter estimation of the mode choice model.