A Population Simulator and Disaggregate Transport Demand Models for Flanders

The Fourt Generation of Strategic Passenger Transport Models for Flanders are being developed to meet three objectives. It includes a Population Simulator to generate reliable population inputs for a disaggregate demand model, the demand model is based on disaggregate tour-based mobility demand model, which also includes a departure time choice model to improve the sensitivity to increasing congestion and congestion charging. Finally the model is updated to the base year. This article describes the development of the population simulator and mobility demand model. The population simulator simulates the demographic evolution of the Flemish population from 2001 to the new base year 2013 and subsequently for a given year in the future. The disaggregate choice models in the mobility-demand model are are estimated on the OVG and OWoWi surveys. The presented demand models are being implemented in a microsimulation application. In effect, the passenger transport model is sensitive to changes in the composition of the population and infrastructure developments.