Traffic Risk Generated by Large Urban Commercial Centers

As a consequence of development policies urban areas are substantially different in terms of road traffic risk. The shape, size and configuration of urban areas, the transport supply to meet people and goods mobility needs, as well as human behavior have huge influence on the road traffic volume and pattern and, hence, on the associated road crash risk. In this context, the paper reveals the effects of locating large shopping centers in the central areas of the city on the already over-congested road network. We use specific spatial analysis models in order to estimate vehicle and customers flows, attracted by one of the largest shopping malls in Bucharest. This approach gives theoretical and practical added value to the study: providing analysis tools to local decision makers for the ex-ante assessment of the consequences of locating large malls, in terms of traffic flow and associated crash risk.