کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1270347 | 1497490 | 2014 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
• Biosphere and its ‘human' subsystem are self-organizing, synergetic systems.
• In the way of the biosphere attractor there can occur bifurcation periods.
• Synergetics shows that in near future two virtual attractors will compete.
• Irreversible catastrophe and total self-destruction of the humanity.
• The humanity motion from hydrogen economy to hydrogen civilization.
The social synergetic analysis of the biosphere and humanity shows that in near future two attractors (human paths) will really compete: the first is an irreversible biosphere catastrophe and the second is a motion along the vector ‘Hydrogen energy → Hydrogen economy → Hydrogen civilization’. In accordance with the basic assumption of the social synergetics about a fundamental possibility of the mankind conscious choice of its own post-bifurcation path to the future, the analysis based on Kondratieff's study about large cycles of the economic development leads to the fundamental conclusion: two historical stages of Hydrogen Civilization will correspond to Kondratieff's sixth (∼2030–2090) and seventh (∼2090–2150) hydrogen energy technological cycles with a probability up to 100%.
Journal: International Journal of Hydrogen Energy - Volume 39, Issue 19, 24 June 2014, Pages 9931–9942