A cellular automata model for Chagas disease

Chagas disease is a major health concern in South and Central America. In the absence of vaccines and treatments, the only strategy to stop the epidemic is to control the population dynamics of the insect vectors transmitting parasites to humans. From both systems theory and epidemiological point of view, a proper modelling is the first need to develop an efficient control strategy. The purpose of this paper is to develop a spatio-temporal description of the vector population dynamics at the scale of a village. The proposed approach is based on cellular automata, which is a suitable framework to study the spatial spread phenomena. We established the concept of periodic spreadability in spatially distributed systems and use it to investigate the temporal variations of Chagas disease transmission risk in a village of the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. This new epidemiological modelling approach provides a desirable tool to evaluate and improve the efficiency of current insecticide spraying strategies as well as to design alternative control strategies.