The impact of vessel crowding on the probability of tourists returning to whale watching in Banderas Bay, Mexico

• Perceived and reported crowding negatively affect tourism return.
• Subjective norm, have positive impacts on such probability.
• The number of boats for tourists return is two.
• Management proposal: norm evaluation, permits, code of conduct for all vessels, a zoning area.

This article examines the influence of vessel crowding on the probability of tourists returning for whale watching at Banderas Bay in Mexico. We estimate a conditional probability model of the intention to return, which includes vessel crowding and other factors such as income and conservation attitudes as explanatory variables. We use a representative survey of 410 whale watching tourists. Our empirical results show that perceived crowding and reported crowding negatively affect the probability of tourists returning for a whale watching trip, while variables such as conservation attitude, specifically subjective norm, have positive impacts on such probability. Results show that most of the surveyed tourists would return if the number of boats around the whales were about two. These results suggest that well designed coastal management policies should include appropriate regulations on vessel crowding not only to protect the whales but also to increase the probability of tourists returning to the site. Proposed regulations on crowding might include evaluation of the actual norm and maintenance of permits as a regulation strategy, a code of conduct for all vessels and a zoning area.