Strategic value optimization and analysis of multi-product biomass refineries with multiple stakeholder considerations

The commercialization of cellulosic biofuels has been plagued by multiple sources of market and technology uncertainty, and the lack of capital. It is conjectured that government support for renewable fuels’ has concealed the true market value of its producers, and its removal will lead to a slew of enterprise failures destroying significant private and tax-payer wealth. With such uncertainty, it is prudent to carefully evaluate capital investments in new facilities before actual investment is incurred. This paper presents a strategic optimization model for a multi-product biomass refinery that optimizes the long-term value of the facility to its stakeholders while yielding optimal decisions for input feedstock mix, product portfolio, conversion technology and process configuration, and capital structure for financing. The paper promotes the concept of stakeholder value, where actors at different supply chain nodes are included as a part of a co-operative enterprise, as a means to spread risks across the supply chain.

► An integer-programming based value optimization model for lignocellulosic biorefineries is formulated.
► Multiple stakeholders of the supply chain as co-operative actors are considered during optimization.
► Results include energy cane (primary) and switchgrass (secondary) as optimal feedstocks.
► Results include AFEX and SSCF as optimal technologies, and cellulosic ethanol and succinic acid as optimal products.
► Analysis shows long payback period, marginal profitability, and investment risks due to lower yields and higher costs.