Potential impact of sea level rise on coastal surges in southeast Louisiana

Potential impacts of 0.5 and 1.0 m of relative sea level rise (RSLR) on hurricane surge and waves in southeast Louisiana are investigated using the numerical storm surge model ADCIRC and the nearshore spectral wave model STWAVE. The models were applied for six hypothetic hurricanes that produce approximately 100 yr water levels in southeastern Louisiana. In areas of maximum surge, the impact of RSLR on surge was generally linear (equal to the RSLR). In wetland or wetland-fronted areas of moderate peak surges (2–3 m), the surge levels were increased by as much as 1–3 m (in addition to the RSLR). The surge increase is as much as double and triple the RSLR over broad areas and as much as five times the RSLR in isolated areas. Waves increase significantly in shallow areas due to the combined increases in water depth due to RSLR and surge increases. Maximum increases in wave height for the modeled storms were 1–1.5 m. Surge propagation over broad, shallow, wetland areas is highly sensitive to RSLR. Wave heights also generally increased for all RSLR cases. These increases were significant (0.5–1.5 m for 1 m RSLR), but less dramatic than the surge increases.