Correlation of extreme waves and water levels using a third-generation wave model and a 3D flow model

A procedure to correlate extreme wave heights and extreme water levels in coastal waters using numerical models together with joint probability analysis has been proposed. A third-generation wave model for wave simulation and a three-dimensional flow model for water level simulation are coupled through the surface atmospheric boundary layer. The model has been calibrated and validated against wind, wave and water level data collected in the coastal waters of Hong Kong. The annual maximum wave height and the concomitant water level have been obtained by simulating the annual extreme typhoon event for 50 consecutive years. The results from bivariate extreme value analysis of the simulated data show that the commonly used empirical method may lead to underestimation of the design water level.