Predictions of depth-to-ice on asteroids based on an asynchronous model of temperature, impact stirring, and ice loss

• Developed asynchronous numerical method to better quantify ice loss from asteroids.
• Expected depth to ice at the poles of Ceres is less than one centimeter.
• Ice within GRaND sensing depth predicted poleward of 60° latitude on Ceres.
• Ground ice can be within impactor depths on Main Belt Comet 133P/Elst-Pizarro.

Water ice near the surface of main belt asteroids is gradually lost to space. A mantle of low thermal conductivity causes large surface temperature amplitudes, and thus increased cooling by thermal re-radiation, lowering temperatures well below the fast-rotator limit. A computational barrier for modeling this ice loss is the multi-scale character of the problem: accurate temperatures require many time steps within a solar day, but ice retreats slowly over billions of years. This barrier is overcome with asynchronous coupling: Models of temperature, ice loss, and impact stirring each use their own time steps and are coupled with one another. The model is applied to 1 Ceres and 7968 Elst-Pizarro. On Ceres, ice can be expected in the top half meter poleward of 60° latitude on both hemispheres, even if excursions of the axis tilt took place, and even in the presence of impact gardening. At the poles, ice can be expected within a centimeter of the surface. The retreating ice crust leads to emission of water from the surface, mainly at the equator; the gradually retreating ice supplies a water exosphere less dense than has been observed by the Herschel telescope. For Main Belt Comet Elst-Pizarro, depths to ice depend on the properties of the surface mantle. For a dust mantle estimated depths are on the order of a decimeter; for a rocky surface the depth at the pole is on the order of one meter. Hence, it could have been activated by a small impact that exposed buried ice.