کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1776687 | 1523636 | 2013 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
فیزیک زمین (ژئو فیزیک)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله

چکیده انگلیسی
This study examines the phase dependant temporal and spatial error evolution and prediction of active break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in an ensemble prediction system (EPS) on a pentad time scale using climate forecast system (CFS). The EPS system shows systematic wet bias (overestimation) over west coast over the Arabian Sea and Myanmar coast and dry bias (underestimation) over Indian land mass even at pentad 1 lead and these biases consistently increase up to 4 pentad lead and saturate thereafter. Irrespective of the phases of the monsoon, the lower bound of predictability is 2 pentads, while upper bound of predictability for initial conditions starting from active phase saturates at 3 pentads and for break and transition phases predictability error saturates at a later stage at about 5 pentad. Initial conditions started from transition phase shows higher potential predictability followed by break phase and then active phase.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics - Volumes 100â101, August 2013, Pages 13-23
Journal: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics - Volumes 100â101, August 2013, Pages 13-23
نویسندگان
Abhilash S, Sahai A. K, S. Pattnaik, S. De,