An adaptive information technology for the operative diagnostics of the tropical cyclones; solar–terrestrial coupling mechanisms

The tools of sequential analysis and percolation theory are herewith used to study the transition processes in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. To accomplish this aim the recently proposed instability indicator for the detection of the characteristics of the state for this system, is utilized. In more detail, the case of the transition processes for Baltic Sea assessed by the Beaufort Scale is examined by investigating the efficiency of the afore-mentioned indicator.We show that the crucial parameter is not the energy source, like the solar radiation, but the energy conversion. Numerical experiments conducted herewith showed that such an indicator facilitates the monitoring of the variability and direction of transition processes in the oceans, and is capable to predict a remarkable change of the ocean–atmosphere system states. It is finally shown that the combination of sequential and cluster analysis with the percolation procedure allows for the detection of a tropical hurricane up to three days in advance of its start. The tool presented may also be applied to the development of relevant indicators for the predictions of magnetosphere–ionosphere–thermosphere coupling and the solar wind–magnetosphere interactions. Finally, future problems on the subject are discussed.

► An instability indicator for the detection of the ocean–atmosphere characteristics.
► Detection of a tropical hurricane 1–3 day in advance with percolation procedures.
► Tool indicators for prediction of magnetosphere–ionosphere–thermosphere couplings.