Quality Quantification of Evaluated Cross Section Covariances

Presently, several methods are used to estimate the covariance matrix of evaluated nuclear cross sections. Because the resulting covariance matrices can be different according to the method used and according to the assumptions of the method, we propose a general and objective approach to quantify the quality of the covariance estimation for evaluated cross sections. The first step consists in defining an objective criterion. The second step is computation of the criterion. In this paper the Kullback-Leibler distance is proposed for the quality quantification of a covariance matrix estimation and its inverse. It is based on the distance to the true covariance matrix. A method based on the bootstrap is presented for the estimation of this criterion, which can be applied with most methods for covariance matrix estimation and without the knowledge of the true covariance matrix. The full approach is illustrated on the 85Rb nucleus evaluations and the results are then used for a discussion on scoring and Monte Carlo approaches for covariance matrix estimation of the cross section evaluations.