Regional analysis of climate variability at three time scales and its effect on rainfed maize production in the Upper Lerma River Basin, Mexico

• Temperature and rainfall variability was highly influenced by the El Niño and La Niña phenomena.
• Rainy season use to be from May to September and actually is from June to September.
• In spite of severe climatic events, rainfed maize production has not been significantly affected.
• In the region, the most determinant factor for maize crop losses is the water deficit.

This study explored climate variability in the Upper Lerma River Basin, State of Mexico, Mexico, at three timescales: annual (1960–2010), monthly (1980–2010) and seasonal (1980–2010). The effects of monthly and seasonal (2003–2010) variability on rainfed maize crops were also evaluated. The variables of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and number of hailstorms were interpolated to generate monthly spatial-temporal series. Over a period of 51 years, the climate of the region shows an accumulative annual increase of 131 mm in rainfall and an increase of 0.8 and 0.74 °C in maximum and minimum temperature, respectively. In conclusion, significant changes in the climate variables were found at the three analyzed timescales. Seasonal climate changes were found to coincide with the most vulnerable stage or flowering period of maize; particularly, a shift in the rainfall pattern generates a water deficit that impacts production yield. Hailstorms have increased in frequency, yet their phase shift results in a lesser impact to maize during its most critical stage of development.