Modelling uncertainty for nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide emissions based on a Swedish field experiment with organic crop rotation

High uncertainties are common in detailed quantification of the N budget of agricultural cropping systems. The process-based CoupModel, integrated with the parameter calibration method known as Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), was used here to define parameter values and estimate an N budget based on experimental data from an organic farming experiment in south-west Sweden. Data on nitrate (NO3−) leaching and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions were used as a basis for quantifying N budget pools. A complete N budget with uncertainties associated with the different components of the N cycle compartments for two different fields (B2 and B4) is presented. Simulated N2O emissions contributed 1–2% of total N output, which corresponded to 7% and 8.7% of total N leaching for B2 and B4, respectively. Measured N2O emissions contributed 3.5% and 10.3% of total N leaching from B2 and B4, respectively. Simulated N inputs (deposition, plant N fixation and fertilisation) and outputs (emissions, leaching and harvest) showed a relatively small range of uncertainty, while the differences in N storage in the soil exhibited a larger range of uncertainty. One-fifth of the GLUE-calibrated parameters had a significant impact on simulated NO3− leaching and/or N2O emissions data. Emissions of N2O were strongly associated with the nitrification process. The high degree of equifinality indicated that a simpler model could be calibrated to the same field data.

► N budgets and parameter values were estimated by simulation using CoupModel and a GLUE based uncertainty method.
► Simulated N inputs and outputs showed a relatively small range of uncertainty.
► 20% of the calibrated parameters influenced simulated NO3− leaching and N2O emission.
► N2O emissions were strongly associated with the nitrification process.
► Results indicated that a simpler model could be calibrated to the same field data.