Monitoring and verifying agricultural practices related to soil carbon sequestration with satellite imagery

The Kyoto Protocol entering into force on 16 February 2005 continues to spur interest in development of carbon trading mechanisms internationally and domestically. Critical to the development of a carbon trading effort is verification that carbon has been sequestered, and field level measurement of C change is likely cost prohibitive. Estimating C change based on agricultural management practices related to carbon sequestration seems more realistic, and analysis of satellite imagery could be used to monitor and verify these practices over large areas. We examined using Landsat imagery to verify crop rotations and quantify crop residue biomass in north central Montana. Field data were collected using a survey of farms. Standard classification tree analysis (CTA) and boosted classification and regression tree analysis (BCTA) were used to classify crop types. Linear regression (LM), regression tree analysis (RTA), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) were used to estimate crop residue. Six crop types were classified with 97% accuracy (BCTA) with class accuracies of 88–99%. Paired t-tests were used to compare the difference between known and predicted mean crop residue biomass. The difference between known and predicted mean residues using SGB was not different than 0 (p-value = 0.99); however root mean square error (RMSE) was large (1981 kg ha−1), implying that SGB accurately predicted regional crop residue biomass but not local predictions (i.e., field or farm level). The results of this study, and previous research classifying tillage practices and estimating soil disturbance, supports using satellite imagery as an effective tool for monitoring and verifying agricultural management practices related to carbon sequestration over large areas.