Uncertainty analysis in the sustainable design of concrete structures: A probabilistic method

This paper presents a sustainability assessment model based on requirement trees, value analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and the Monte Carlo simulation technique. It embraces the approach for assessing sustainability taken by the Spanish Structural Concrete Code. Nevertheless, the deterministic model of the Spanish Code can cause significant problems in terms of adequately managing a project’s structural sustainability objective. Thus, a method not only has to assess the potential sustainability index at the end of the project. It also has to evaluate the degree of uncertainty that may make it difficult to achieve the sustainability objective established by the client or promoter.

► There is uncertainty about the final characteristics of a structure.
► This makes it difficult to estimate the final sustainability index of the structure.
► The method serves to manage uncertainty, facilitating on-time decision making.
► It informs about the likelihood of finally reaching the sustainability objective.
► It serves for comparing the consequences of making different decisions.