Reliability analysis of a bulk carrier in ultimate limit state under combined global and local loads in the hogging and alternate hold loading condition

The alternate hold still-water loading in hogging combined with wave loading is critical for the safe design of bulk carriers. The ultimate longitudinal strength of the hull girder of bulk carriers in this condition has been found to be considerably reduced by the action of local lateral pressure loads. In the present paper, an interaction equation based on the ultimate hull girder strength assessment obtained by nonlinear finite element analyses is adopted to consider the relationship between ultimate longitudinal bending capacity and average external sea pressure over the bottom. This interaction equation is used as the basis for the failure function. The annual probability of failure is obtained by FORM analysis considering two typical load cases, namely, pure longitudinal hogging bending moment and combined global hogging bending moment and local lateral pressure loads. The effect of heavy weather avoidance on the failure probability is evaluated. The results show that the local lateral pressure has a significant influence on the annual probability of failure of bulk carriers in the hogging and alternate hold loading condition.