Prediction of cardiovascular disease by abdominal obesity measures is dependent on body weight and sex – Results from two community based cohort studies

AimTo study waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist circumference (WC), sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), and waist-hip-height ratio (WHHR) as predictors of CVD, in men and women stratified by BMI (cut-off ≥25).Methods and resultsA cohort of n = 3741 (53% women) 60-year old individuals without CVD was followed for 11-years (375 CVD cases). To replicate the results, we also assessed another large independent cohort; The Malmö Diet and Cancer study – cardiovascular cohort (MDCC, (n = 5180, 60% women, 602 CVD cases during 16-years). After adjustment for established risk factors in normal-weight women, the hazard ratio (HR) per one standard deviation (SD) were; WHR; 1.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35–2.70), WC; 1.81 (95% CI 1.02–3.20), SAD; 1.25 (95% CI 0.74–2.11), and WHHR; 1.97 (95% CI 1.40–2.78). In men the association with WHR, WHHR and WC were not significant, whereas SAD was the only measure that significantly predicted CVD in men (HR 1.19 (95% CI 1.04–1.35). After adjustments for established risk factors in overweight/obese women, none of the measures were significantly associated with CVD risk. In men, however, all measures were significant predictors; WHR; 1.24 (955 CI 1.04–1.47), WC 1.19 (95% CI 1.00–1.42), SAD 1.21 (95% CI 1.00–1.46), and WHHR; 1.23 (95% CI 1.05–1.44). Only the findings in men with BMI ≥ 25 were verified in MDCC.ConclusionIn normal weight individuals, WHHR and WHR were the best predictors in women, whereas SAD was the only independent predictor in men. Among overweight/obese individuals all measures failed to predict CVD in women, whereas WHHR was the strongest predictor after adjustments for CVD risk factors in men.