کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
3104902 1191667 2013 7 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Assessment of mortality prediction models in a Ghanaian burn population
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم پزشکی و سلامت پزشکی و دندانپزشکی مراقبت های ویژه و مراقبتهای ویژه پزشکی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Assessment of mortality prediction models in a Ghanaian burn population
چکیده انگلیسی

PurposeOver 40 new or modified outcome prediction models have been developed for severe burns; with age, total burned surface area (TBSA) and inhalation area as major determinants of mortality. The objective of this study was to assess their applicability in a developing country.ProceduresData were collected retrospectively of a consecutive series of 261 patients (2009–2011) admitted to a Burns Intensive Care. Five outcome prediction models based on admission criteria were evaluated: Bull grid, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index – ABSI, Ryan-model, Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury – BOBI and revised Baux. Discriminative power and goodness-of-fit were assessed by receiver operating characteristic analyses (area under the curve – AUC) and Hosmer–Lemeshow tests.FindingsMedian age was 10.5 years (IQR: 2.5–27 years), median TBSA 21% (IQR: 11–34%); 55.2% were male, 28 patients died (10.7%). Only 2 patients were intubated (0.8%). The AUC were between 77 and 86%. The ABSI model showed the best calibration (28.7 expected deaths). Ryan, BOBI and rBaux significantly underestimated mortality, whereas Bull showed an overestimation.ConclusionThis study on a young group of burn patients showed moderate to good discriminative power using all five prediction models. The expected number of deaths tended to be underestimated in the three most recent prediction models.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Burns - Volume 39, Issue 5, August 2013, Pages 997–1003
نویسندگان
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