African swine fever in the Russian Federation: Spatio-temporal analysis and epidemiological overview

African swine fever is viral disease of domestic and wild pigs which leads to almost total mortality and causes great economic losses due to absence of vaccine. Having been introduced into the Russian Federation in 2007 the disease has spread widely in the southern region of the country and since 2011 has demonstrated a tendency to form a secondary endemic zone in the central part of the country. In the present study spatio-temporal patterns of ASF diffusion in the populations of wild and domestic pigs are analyzed. The structure of the domestic swine population is conventionally divided into a sub-population at low biosecurity (77% of the total number of outbreaks in domestic pigs) and a population at high biosecurity (23%). The statistics of ASF cases registered in each of these sub-populations is presented. The possible causes of ASF diffusion across the country are discussed. The use of geo-information technologies (GIS) enabled confirmation of the conclusion that an epidemic center has shifted into the central part of Russia. The main conclusions of this study are that: (1) anthropogenic factors play the leading role in the spread of ASF across the territory of the RF; (2) small-scale private holdings (low biosecurity population) are more exposed to ASF virus introduction; (3) there is a high risk of diffusion of ASFV from the secondary endemic zone in the central part of the RF to neighboring regions.

► The spatio-temporal statistics of the ASF outbreaks in Russia was analyzed.
► Three target sub-populations of susceptible pigs were considered.
► Geo-spatial technique of ‘mean center’ was used to illustrate a movement of epidemic center.
► A conclusion about leading role of anthropogenic factor was made.