The social and family backgrounds of infants in South Australian out-of-home care 2000–2005: Predictors of subsequent abuse notifications

The study examined the social and familial characteristics of 498 infants entering South Australian out-of-home care between 2000 and 2004 (n = 225 entered only for respite, n = 273 for other formal placements). Analyses focus`ed on the extent to which background characteristics, most notably a history of prior abuse, was able to predict subsequent child abuse notifications once children has exited care. The results showed that most children entered care due to a clustering of significant background problems, including poverty, domestic violence, physical abuse, substance misuse, and neglect. Around 50% of infants were returned to homes where there were subsequent notifications of abuse. Logistic regression modelling conducted separately for respite only and those formally entering care showed that prior abuse was a reliable predictor of ongoing abuse notifications in both samples. In some models, prior abuse yielded a very high probability (> 60%) of some ongoing notifications suggesting that these statistical models could be used to enhance risk assessments conducted prior to reunification decision-making in South Australia.