The story behind kinship care caseload dynamics: An analysis of AFCARS data, 2000–2003

Findings from an analysis of four years of point-in-time data from the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) suggest that the number and share of children living in kinship care arrangements declined. This study shows that using point-in-time data alone to assess caseload trends can obscure important caseload dynamics. Assessing kinship care entrants and exits demonstrate that the number of children entering kinship care actually increased, suggesting that use of kinship care by states increased. The perceived decline in kinship care suggested by point-in-time estimates is likely driven by increases in the number of children exiting from kinship care that occurred at a faster rate than entrants. Additionally, this study revealed that three states, California, Florida, and Illinois, are significant contributors to the finding that the share of children in kinship care declined in point-in-time data. After removing these states from the analysis, there was a slight increase in the number of children living in kinship care arrangements. In conclusion, to clearly demonstrate the nuances of caseload dynamics, point-in-time national estimates should be examined in concert with an analysis of entrants, exits, as well as state-by-state analyses.