The timing to and risk factors associated with child welfare system recidivism at two decision-making points

This paper examines a variety of demographic, socio-economic, and case characteristics associated with the risk of a first known re-report to Child Protective Services for children at two stages in the child welfare system. In an attempt to establish if risk factors operate differentially depending on where the case is within the system, the first group had open investigations, and the second group had substantiated index cases. Data came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of children reported to Child Protective Services. Discrete time survival analysis was employed to examine the timing to the first known re-report. Consistent with the literature on regional samples and research using other methods, results indicate that prior involvement with the child welfare system strongly predicted re-report in both groups. In addition, childhood vulnerability, caretaker disadvantage, and poverty predicted re-reports. Findings suggest that some discrepancies in the prior literature may be due in part to study sampling strategies and to the effects of risk exposure and also that risk assessment tools need to attend to the stage within the child welfare system when the case is being assessed.