Projection de l'incidence du cancer du sein en 2018 en France

The objective of this work is to estimate the trends of the incidence of breast cancer until 2018, in the French context on the basis of an age cohort model. The model extrapolates the trend of incidence rate per generation and age, incorporates the effects of demographic changes in the female population in terms of size and age structure and simulates the impact of the withdrawal of the use of hormone therapy for menopause (HTM) under different assumptions. The results suggest a continuous growth in the number of incident cases that would increase from 49,814 to 64,621 between 2005 and 2018. Changes in incidence following the HTM use withdrawal, should be moderate and transient. The most important epidemiological parameters in explaining the future incidence of breast cancer remains the “cohort” effect that continues to have a significant impact until the extinction of cohorts for which the increase was more marked (birth years 1920 to 1945). This factor alone explains 18% of the growth in the number of incident cases in 2018, while the effect of population growth account for 6.6%, the cessation of HTM a 6.4% decrease and aging a 4.6% growth.