Runoff responses to long-term rainfall variability in a shrub-dominated catchment

In this study we investigate how rainfall has changed between two nine year periods (1977–1985 and 2003–2011), and evaluate the effects of changes in rainfall on runoff from a shrub-dominated catchment in the southwestern USA. Analysis of rainfall characteristics shows that between these two periods there is an overall increase in annual rainfall, which corresponds with a long-term increase in rainfall in this region. Analysis of the frequency–magnitude distribution of rainfall events during these two periods indicates that there has not been a significant change in the return period of daily rainfall totals, whereas there has been a significant change in the return period of runoff-generating rainfall events. Between the two periods, there has been a large increase in the return period for a runoff event of a given magnitude. Although there has been an increase in rainfall between the two periods, results show that, contrary to what might be expected, an overall increase in rainfall has not resulted in an increase in runoff because of a change in the frequency–magnitude distribution of runoff-generating rainfall events. We anticipate that this reduction in runoff is due to a reduction in rainfall intensities between the two periods.

► There has been a significant increase in annual rainfall at the Jornada Experimental Range.
► There has been an increase in the frequency of runoff events.
► There has been a decrease in the magnitude of runoff events.
► The decrease in the flashiness of runoff has great implications for erosion dynamics.