Migration of fallout radiocaesium in a grassland soil from 1986 to 2001: Part II: Evaluation of the activity–depth profiles by transport models

The vertical migration of 134Cs, deposited by the Chernobyl fallout (1986), and 137Cs, deposited by the Chernobyl and the global fallout, in the soil of an undisturbed Bavarian grassland in Germany was investigated from 1986 to 2001. The activity–depth profiles of both isotopes at ten sampling dates were evaluated by the classical convection–dispersion equation and a random walk particle model. In both models, the apparent migration velocity v and the apparent dispersion coefficient D were assumed to be independent of time. However, optimized values of v and D were significantly different for the different locations sampled at different times. If nevertheless constant values of v and D were used, the simulated activity densities per soil layer were out of the range of the spatial variability of the observed activity densities determined in 2001. It is concluded that without further simultaneous investigations e.g. on bioturbation at the study site, migration parameters of radiocaesium determined by classical transport models based on convection and dispersion during the first years after the deposition of the activity cannot be used for predictive purposes.