Exploratory analyses for the assessment of climate change impacts on the energy production in an Amazon run-of-river hydropower plant

• The hydrologic regime of the Tapajós Basin is susceptible to climate change.
• Uncertainties prevent the identification of an optimal solution for impact assessment.
• Exploratory analyses are able to reveal weaknesses in energy production strategies.

Study regionThe Tapajós Basin is an important Amazon tributary affected by human activities with great potential for water conflicts. The basin, as others within the Amazon region, is receiving a number of hydropower plants, among them the Teles Pires plant, projected to operate in 2015.Study focusHydrological impacts due to climate change affect human activities, such as hydroelectric generation, and should be carefully studied for better planning of water management. In this study, we assess climate change impacts by applying the MHD-INPE hydrological model using several climate models projections as inputs. The impact assessment consisted of statistical shifts of precipitation and discharge. Energy production in a projected hydropower plant was assessed through the development of annual power duration curves for each projection, also considering its design and structural limitations.New hydrological insights for the regionThe high inter-model variability in the climate projections drives a high variability in the projected hydrological impacts. Results indicate an increase of basin's sensitivity to climate change and vulnerability of water exploitation. Uncertainties prevent the identification of a singular optimal solution for impacts assessment. However, exploratory analysis of the plant design robustness for hydropower generation show a reduction in the energy production even under projections of increased discharge, due to plant capacity limitations. This is valuable information for stakeholders to decide about energy production strategies.