Influence of climate change on the frequency of daytime temperature inversions and stagnation events in the Po Valley: historical trend and future projections

• A new method to detect layers of temperature inversion is presented.
• The method has been validated using sounding data in the Po Valley (Italy).
• In future scenarios inverted lapse rate is projected to increase in the Po Valley.
• The increase in temperature inversions will be mainly in the warm period.
• Air stagnation events are also expected to increase by the end of 21st century.

This work analyzes the frequency of days characterized by daytime temperature inversion and air stagnation events in the Po valley area. The analysis is focused on both historical series and future projections under climate change. Historical sounding data from two different Italian stations are used as well as future projections data, provided by CMCC-CCLM 4-8-19 regional climate model (MED-CORDEX initiative). A new method to detect layers of temperature inversion is also presented. The developed method computes the occurrence of a temperature inversion layer for a given day at 12 UTC without a detailed knowledge of temperature vertical profile. This method was validated using sounding data and applied to the model projections, under two different emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Under RCP4.5 intermediate emissions scenario, the occurrence of temperature inversions is projected to increase by 12 days/year (around + 10%) in the last decade of 21st century compared to 1986–2005 average. However, the increase in temperature inversions seems to be especially concentrated in the warm period. Under RCP8.5 extreme scenario, temperature inversions are still projected to increase, though to a lesser extent compared to RCP4.5 scenario (+ 6 days/year in the last decade of 21st century). A similar trend was found also for air stagnation events, which take into account the variation of precipitation pattern and wind strength. The expected increases are equal to + 13 days/year and + 11 days/year in the last decade of 21st century compared to 1986–2005 average, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively.